4-Way Hedge / Dutching Calculator
Enter your total stake and decimal odds for four outcomes. This calculator splits your stake to target the same payout regardless of which outcome wins.
Commission adjusts odds as: effective odds = 1 + (odds - 1) × (1 - commission).
What is a 4-way hedge?
A 4-way hedge is when you place bets across four different outcomes so your payout is as even as possible no matter which one wins. This approach is often called dutching. If the combined implied probabilities are low enough, you can lock in a guaranteed profit (an arbitrage). If not, you can still reduce variance and limit downside.
How this calculator works
The tool uses decimal odds and one total stake amount. It calculates each stake with this idea:
- Compute implied share for each outcome: 1 / effective odds
- Add all four implied shares
- Allocate bankroll proportionally so payouts align
Mathematically, each stake is:
Stakei = Total Stake × [(1 / Oddsi) / Σ(1 / Odds)]
The expected equal payout is approximately Total Stake / Σ(1 / Odds).
Interpreting the result status
- Arbitrage found: Σ(1/odds) < 1, meaning positive guaranteed return is possible.
- Break-even market: Σ(1/odds) ≈ 1, very little edge after fees/slippage.
- No arbitrage: Σ(1/odds) > 1, still useful for balanced exposure but not risk-free profit.
Practical example
Suppose you have $1,000 and four outcomes priced at 2.80, 3.20, 4.50, and 6.00. The calculator distributes your bankroll so the payout is nearly identical regardless of winner. If the total implied probability is below 100%, you’ll see a positive lock-in profit; otherwise, the result shows your smallest uniform loss for complete coverage.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Mixing odd formats: This tool expects decimal odds only.
- Ignoring commissions: Exchange fees can erase tiny edges.
- Rounding too aggressively: Small rounding changes can break a tight hedge.
- Assuming liquidity: Posted odds are useless if stake limits are too low.
- Forgetting timing risk: Odds can move while placing legs.
When to use a 4-way hedge calculator
This is useful in markets with four clear outcomes (certain tournaments, group winner markets, special props, etc.). It’s also helpful for rebalancing an existing position when one side moves and you want more predictable payoffs.
Risk and responsible use
Even perfect math cannot remove execution risk. Always verify limits, settlement rules, void conditions, and commission structure before placing real money. Treat this as a planning tool, not financial advice.