Use this Age of Sigmar (AoS) damage calculator to estimate expected wounds and damage from a weapon profile into a target profile. It is fast, transparent, and perfect for comparing units, buffs, and target choices before a game.
AoS Expected Damage Calculator
Enter your attacking profile and target defenses. Click calculate to get expected damage and estimated models slain.
What this AoS damage calculator measures
This tool estimates expected damage, not guaranteed damage. In tabletop terms, expected damage is your long-run average over many similar attack sequences. It helps answer practical questions:
- Which target should this unit attack?
- How much value does a re-roll aura add?
- How much does enemy ward reduce my output?
- Is a damage-2 weapon better than a high-volume damage-1 weapon in this matchup?
How the math works (quickly)
1) Hit chance
The calculator converts your hit roll (for example 3+) into a probability. It then applies optional re-rolls:
- Re-roll 1s: adds extra success from the 1/6 of dice showing a 1.
- Re-roll failed: gives a second chance to all failed hit rolls.
2) Wound chance
It repeats the same process for wound rolls and wound re-rolls.
3) Save and rend interaction
The target’s save is modified by rend and cover. Example: a 4+ save hit by rend -1 becomes a 5+. If the target has no valid save after modifiers, all wounds are unsaved.
4) Ward mitigation
After normal damage and mortal wounds are generated, ward rolls ignore some of that damage. The calculator applies ward as an average reduction to both normal and mortal damage.
5) Final outputs
You get expected successful hits, wounds, unsaved wounds, total expected damage, and expected models slain based on target wounds per model.
Why expected damage matters in list building
Raw warscroll stats can be misleading. A profile that looks explosive into low-save infantry may underperform into high-save, high-ward elites. Expected damage helps you compare apples to apples and spot where a unit is specialized versus where it is flexible.
Use this calculator while planning buffs (command abilities, prayers, spells, all-out attack style effects). Small increases in hit and wound consistency stack quickly, especially with multi-damage weapons.
Practical usage tips
- Run multiple targets: test the same attacker into 3+ save, 4+ save, and 5+ save profiles.
- Model buff windows: compare “buffed” vs “unbuffed” turns to understand spike potential.
- Include mortal output: if your unit has mortals on charge or on 6s, add an average value in the mortal wounds field.
- Check ward-heavy metas: wards heavily suppress high-damage attacks; don’t ignore this layer.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing average with certainty
Expected damage is not what will happen every combat phase. Dice variance still matters in single games.
Ignoring sequencing effects
Some abilities trigger on unmodified rolls of 6, some add extra attacks, and some convert wounds to mortals. This calculator is intentionally streamlined, so use it as a baseline rather than a complete combat simulator.
Forgetting model count constraints
If your expected models slain is 3.8, that does not guarantee 3 or 4 dead models in one real roll. It is an average over time.
Frequently asked questions
Does this replace full probability simulation?
No. It is a fast expected-value calculator. For detailed distributions (like kill chance thresholds), use Monte Carlo simulation tools.
Can I use decimal values for damage and mortal wounds?
Yes. Decimal entries are useful when you already know average values from random damage characteristics.
Is this useful for competitive AoS?
Absolutely. It is especially useful for target priority, list tuning, and understanding whether a hammer unit reliably clears the profile it is intended to fight.