CSGO Trade-Up Contract Calculator
Enter your 10 input skins and potential outcomes to estimate output float, expected value (EV), and profit probability.
1) Contract Inputs (10 skins)
| # | Input Cost ($) | Input Float (0 to 1) |
|---|
2) Possible Outcomes
Set each possible skin, its market price, wear range, and weight. Weight represents relative chance (example: if two collections each have 5 inputs, each collection weight is 5).
| Outcome Skin Name | Price ($) | Min Float | Max Float | Weight | Action |
|---|
How this CSGO contract calculator works
A CS:GO (and CS2) trade-up contract lets you exchange ten skins of the same rarity for one skin of the next rarity tier. The big challenge is uncertainty: your output skin is random, and even when the skin is profitable in theory, your result can still lose money. This calculator is built to make those odds visible before you click the contract button.
By combining your input costs, input floats, and potential outputs, the tool estimates:
- Total contract cost
- Average input float
- Estimated output float for each outcome
- Expected value (EV)
- Expected profit/loss and chance of profit
Float math explained in plain English
Every skin has a float range. Some go from 0.00 to 1.00, while others might be capped, like 0.06 to 0.80. Your contract’s average input float is scaled into each output skin’s allowed range using the standard formula:
Output Float = Avg Input Float × (Max − Min) + Min
That means lower average input floats generally produce cleaner outcomes, but the exact result still depends on each output skin’s float limits.
Wear tiers used by this calculator
- Factory New: 0.00 - 0.07
- Minimal Wear: 0.07 - 0.15
- Field-Tested: 0.15 - 0.38
- Well-Worn: 0.38 - 0.45
- Battle-Scarred: 0.45 - 1.00
How to use the calculator effectively
Step 1: Enter your real purchase prices
Include all ten input skin costs as accurately as possible. If you bought skins from buy orders, use your actual filled price. If you plan to sell output on the Steam Market, keep tax enabled so your EV is realistic.
Step 2: Enter the correct outcome pool
Add each possible output skin with its price and float range. Use weight values to represent relative chance. If all outcomes are equally likely, give them the same weight.
Step 3: Compare EV against your risk tolerance
A positive EV does not mean guaranteed profit. It only means the average value is positive over many contracts. Check both EV and “chance of profit” before deciding.
Practical tips for trade-up planning
- Avoid stale prices: market prices can move fast, especially after case updates.
- Watch liquidity: a high listed price means little if sell volume is low.
- Prioritize downside control: calculate worst-case loss, not just best-case hype.
- Batch your analysis: compare multiple contract variants before buying inputs.
- Don’t ignore fees: Steam tax can flip a “green” contract into red EV.
Common mistakes traders make
The most common error is chasing a single jackpot output while ignoring the weighted average. Another is using incorrect float ranges or forgetting that even “good” outcomes might need time to sell. This calculator helps prevent those mistakes by forcing every key assumption into a single decision view.
Final thoughts
If you treat trade-ups like math instead of emotion, your long-term decisions usually improve. Use this CS:GO contract calculator before each craft, update prices often, and keep expectations realistic. Smart contract planning is less about one lucky hit and more about disciplined, repeatable edges.