Pension Drawdown Estimator
Use this calculator to estimate how long your pension pot could last under a drawdown strategy.
How this Hargreaves Lansdown drawdown calculator works
This page gives you a practical way to model pension drawdown over time. You enter your starting pension balance, how much you want to withdraw, your expected investment growth, and typical annual charges. The calculator then projects year-by-year outcomes until your selected end age.
It is especially useful if you are comparing different retirement income plans and want to test “what if” scenarios before making decisions.
What the result tells you
- How long your pension might last under your current assumptions.
- Estimated balance at your target age if the pot is not exhausted.
- Projected annual withdrawals, including inflation increases if enabled.
- A year-by-year projection table so you can spot pressure points early.
Inputs that matter most
1) Withdrawal level
Your withdrawal amount has the largest effect on sustainability. Even a small increase can significantly reduce how long the fund lasts.
2) Investment return assumptions
Optimistic return assumptions can make a plan look safer than it really is. Try conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios to understand your risk range.
3) Platform and fund charges
Charges create a drag every year. Over a long retirement, small fee differences can compound into large differences in ending balance.
4) Inflation
If you increase income each year to maintain purchasing power, total withdrawals rise over time. This is realistic, but it can shorten drawdown duration.
Example scenario
Suppose you start with £350,000, withdraw £1,500 per month, expect 4.5% annual growth, and pay 0.75% annual charges. If withdrawals rise with 2.5% inflation each year, your plan may still be viable—but the margin of safety depends heavily on market sequence and spending flexibility.
Try these quick adjustments to stress test your plan:
- Increase monthly withdrawals by £250 and compare depletion age.
- Reduce growth assumptions by 1% and review impact.
- Run one case with inflation-linked withdrawals and one without.
Important limitations
- This model assumes constant average returns, not real market volatility.
- It does not include tax calculations or changing tax bands.
- It does not account for one-off withdrawals or ad hoc contributions.
- Longevity risk, sequence risk, and behavioral risk still apply.
Tips for more resilient retirement drawdown
- Set a baseline withdrawal and define spending that is optional.
- Keep a cash buffer for short-term income needs.
- Review portfolio charges and asset allocation annually.
- Revisit your assumptions each year rather than relying on a one-time forecast.
- Consider professional advice before finalizing pension strategy.
Final thought
A drawdown calculator is most powerful when used as a planning tool, not a prediction tool. Use it to test scenarios, identify weak points, and build a retirement income plan that can adapt as markets and life circumstances change.