mulligan calculator

What this mulligan calculator does

A mulligan is one of the highest-leverage decisions in any card game. This calculator helps you answer a practical question: “If I mulligan aggressively for a specific card or combo piece, what are my real odds of finding it?”

Instead of relying on intuition, you can quantify your opening consistency. Enter deck size, copies of your target card, opening hand size, and how many mulligans you are willing to take. The tool then computes:

• Chance of success on each mulligan attempt
• Cumulative chance of success after each attempt
• Total probability if you always mulligan failed hands up to your chosen limit

How the math works (in plain English)

The calculator uses the hypergeometric distribution, which is the standard model for card draws without replacement. For each hand, it computes the probability of seeing at least your minimum required copies.

If you mulligan and reshuffle, each new hand is treated as a fresh draw from the same deck composition. That means your total chance across multiple attempts is:

Total success = 1 − (fail attempt 1 × fail attempt 2 × ... × fail attempt N)

London vs. reduced-hand mulligans

London mulligan

You draw a full opening hand each attempt and only reduce final kept hand size by bottoming cards. If your only goal is “see at least one copy,” each attempt has the same raw find rate.

Reduced-hand mulligan

Each mulligan draws one fewer card, so your chance to hit naturally drops each attempt. This makes early mulligans more expensive and usually changes optimal strategy.

How to use this for deckbuilding and play decisions

• Combo decks: Test whether you can reliably find an enabler by turn one or two.
• Commander: Compare consistency with 1 copy vs. multiple functional duplicates.
• Control: Evaluate whether aggressive mulligans for land interaction are worth card disadvantage.
• Sideboarding: Estimate real access to hate pieces in post-board games.

Practical mulligan tips

Raw probability is a starting point, not the whole decision. Consider your deck’s texture:

• Mana quality and curve often matter more than any single spell.
• A “successful” hand by this tool may still be unkeepable in practice.
• Extra draws, cantrips, and tutors can dramatically improve effective consistency.
• Matchup context matters: against aggro, prioritize stability; against combo, prioritize speed/disruption.

Bottom line

Use this calculator to replace guesswork with numbers. If your line depends on a narrow opener, your mulligan plan should be deliberate and tested. Over many games, disciplined mulligan decisions are often worth more than flashy topdecks.