Tip: Event bonus is applied multiplicatively (e.g., 20% bonus turns a 10% step into 12%).
What this reforge calculator helps you do
Reforging in Elsword can feel unpredictable, especially at higher stages where each upgrade chance gets smaller. This tool gives you a practical planning view: expected attempts, expected ED cost, chance to hit your target within a fixed number of tries, and how far your current budget can reasonably take you.
Instead of guessing, you can compare goals side by side. For example, you can quickly see whether pushing to a very high stage now is worth it, or whether saving resources for a future enhancement event offers better value.
How the calculator works
1) Stage-by-stage probabilities
Reforge progression is modeled as one successful step at a time: if you are at stage 12 and aiming for 16, you must clear 12→13, 13→14, 14→15, and 15→16. Each step has its own success chance.
2) Expected attempts and expected cost
For each step, expected attempts are estimated as 1 ÷ success chance. The total expected attempts are the sum across all required steps. Multiply that by cost per attempt to estimate long-run average ED cost.
3) Probability within a fixed number of attempts
The calculator also uses a dynamic probability model to estimate your chance of reaching target stage within your planned number of attempts. This is useful for “Can I finish this week?” planning.
Recommended way to use this tool
- Start with your current and target stage.
- Enter realistic ED cost per attempt including material market prices.
- Set attempts you can afford this session and your full ED budget.
- Add event bonus when enhancement or reforge boosts are active.
- Compare outcome before and after event bonus to decide when to push.
Practical strategy notes for Elsword players
Choose milestones, not emotions
Going from one high stage to the next can be expensive. Many players benefit from setting milestone targets tied to content breakpoints rather than trying to rush maximum values in one go.
Track total cost, not single wins/losses
A lucky success does not change underlying odds. Keep records of ED spent and attempts used. This improves future planning and helps you avoid overcommitting resources.
Use events intentionally
Success-rate events can dramatically change your expected cost curve. Even modest percentage boosts become meaningful across many attempts, particularly at high stages with low base probabilities.
Example planning scenario
Suppose you want to move from stage 12 to 16. The calculator can show:
- How many attempts this goal may take on average.
- How much ED that translates to at your chosen per-attempt cost.
- Your chance to finish within 100 attempts.
- Whether your current budget is likely enough.
If your probability is too low for your current budget, you can lower target, wait for event bonuses, or improve income routes first.
FAQ
Are these official Elsword rates?
This page uses a default planning curve. Treat it as a budgeting assistant. If exact live rates are available from official notes or in-game UI, use those values for final decisions.
Does this include downgrades, break chances, or special protections?
No. This version assumes simple forward progression by success/fail attempts only. It is intended as a clear baseline model.
Can I use this for event comparison?
Yes. Adjust the Event Success Bonus field to quickly estimate the impact of event windows versus standard days.
Final thoughts
A good reforge plan balances power progression, ED efficiency, and timing. Use this calculator before big spending sessions so your upgrades are intentional, measurable, and aligned with your long-term Elsword goals.