Estimate How Long Your Retirement Savings Could Last
Use this calculator to model portfolio drawdown with annual investment growth, inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and optional outside income (such as Social Security or pension).
Year-by-Year Projection
| Year | Age | Start Balance | Growth | Spending Need | Other Income | Portfolio Withdrawal | End Balance |
|---|
Assumption: growth is applied before annual withdrawal. This is a simplified planning model, not investment advice.
How this retirement drawdown calculator works
A retirement drawdown plan answers one big question: can your portfolio support your spending for the rest of your life? This calculator gives you a practical way to estimate that by simulating each year of retirement.
You enter your starting balance, expected return, inflation, and spending. Then the tool projects how your investments grow and how much you withdraw each year. If the portfolio reaches zero before your planned retirement horizon, the calculator shows when depletion may occur.
What each input means
Starting portfolio balance
This is your investable retirement pool: brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, and other drawdown assets. Exclude emergency cash if you plan to keep it separate.
First-year spending need
This is the total amount you want to spend in year one of retirement. The calculator increases this amount every year by your inflation rate.
Other annual income
Include income sources that reduce pressure on your portfolio, such as Social Security, pension income, rental income, or part-time work. The calculator subtracts this amount from your spending need to determine your annual portfolio withdrawal.
Expected return and inflation
These assumptions are powerful. Small changes in return, inflation, or spending can materially change outcomes. Run multiple scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic) rather than relying on one number.
How to interpret the results
- Portfolio lasts full period: Your assumptions suggest the money may last through your planned timeline.
- Portfolio depletion year: You may need to reduce spending, retire later, increase income, or adjust asset allocation.
- Initial withdrawal rate: A quick indicator of pressure on your portfolio in year one.
- Year-by-year table: Useful for understanding when risk is highest and how inflation impacts withdrawals.
Important planning realities this model cannot fully capture
1) Sequence of returns risk
Real markets are uneven. Poor returns in the first 5-10 years of retirement can have an outsized effect, even if long-term averages look normal.
2) Taxes and account order
Withdrawal sequencing across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts changes your net spendable income. This basic model works in pre-tax terms.
3) Healthcare and long-term care expenses
Spending often changes over retirement. Healthcare can rise sharply later in life. Consider stress-testing with higher late-stage expenses.
4) Lifestyle flexibility
Most retirees can adjust discretionary spending during down markets. A flexible spending rule can improve portfolio longevity.
Ways to improve retirement drawdown sustainability
- Delay retirement by 1-3 years to increase savings and shorten drawdown period.
- Reduce fixed monthly costs before retirement (housing, debt, recurring subscriptions).
- Increase guaranteed income where appropriate (delayed Social Security, pension optimization, annuity analysis).
- Use guardrails: modest spending cuts after poor market years and measured raises after strong years.
- Revisit assumptions yearly and rebalance investment risk as needed.
Frequently asked questions
What is a “safe” withdrawal rate?
There is no universal safe number. Historically, many people use 3% to 4% as a planning range, but your timeline, asset mix, taxes, and flexibility matter.
Should I use nominal or real returns?
This calculator uses nominal returns and separately adjusts spending for inflation. If you prefer real returns, set inflation to 0 and adjust return assumptions accordingly.
How often should I recalculate?
At least annually, and any time your spending, asset allocation, retirement date, or income sources change.
Educational use only. This tool is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Consider working with a fiduciary financial planner for a personalized retirement income strategy.